Start with the MSAR and compare your GPA and MCAT to each school's median ranges. From there, build a balanced list: some reach schools, a solid core of targets where you fit the numbers, and a few likelier options. Weigh mission fit, since a school focused on primary care in rural areas wants something different from a research powerhouse.
Two factors people underweight: your state of residence, because public schools strongly favor in-state applicants, and whether you are open to DO programs, which widens your list considerably. A realistic, well-researched list of schools that genuinely fit you will always beat a list built on prestige alone.